japan inflation rate 为什么说中国不会发生债务危机？

Are rising debt-to-gross domestic product ratios around the world a sign that another financial crisis is looming? At a recent investment conference, I had a heated debate with an economist who claimed that rising indebtedness across the globe was a sure sign of renewed economic sickness and deterioration. “The Minsky moment will return,” he declared, pounding the table. He singled out China as the place where the next financial collapse would occur. Credit expansion there, he said, had grown “too much, too fast”.

在全球范围内，债务与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率不断上升，这是否意味着另一场金融危机即将来临?在最近一次投资会议上，我和一位经济学家进行了激烈的争论，他认为全球债务增长是经济又出了问题、经济状况恶化的确切迹象。他拍着桌子说：“明斯基时刻将重新降临。”他认为中国将是下一次金融崩溃的发生地。他说，中国的信贷扩张得“太多太快了”。

For decades, the debt-to-GDP ratio has been widely used as the key gauge of a nation’s financial vulnerability. Nevertheless, this measure has proved to be misleading. In the mid-1990s, when Japan’s gross ratio approached 120 per cent, many concluded that the country was heading for fiscal ruin, which would inevitably collapse the bond market and the yen, and cause hyperinflation. What has happened since then is that the total ratio has risen to 250 per cent today, while Japanese government bond yields have fallen to zero. Japan has suffered decades of price deflation.

几十年来，债务与GDP比率一直被广泛用作衡量一个国家金融脆弱性的关键指标。japan inflation rate不过，这一指标已被证明是误导性的。上世纪90年代中期，当日本的这个总比率接近120%时，许多人断定日本即将陷入财政危机，这将不可避免地造成该国债券市场和日元崩溃，并导致恶性通胀。而实际上，日本现在的总比率已上升到250%，其国债收益率已降到零。日本经历了数十年的通货紧缩。